How GLP-1s Are Reshaping Healthcare and Consumer Behavior

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Hello everyone and welcome to the Healthcare Success Podcast. Today it's my pleasure to invite Beth Bulik, who is senior analyst for healthcare and pharma from eMarketer. I'm interviewing her today after she interviewed me. So welcome Beth, first of all.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yes. Thanks, Stewart. Great to be here.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Good. So Beth and I had such an interesting discussion when we talked about GLP-1s. And as a lot of our listeners know, GLP-1s have changed the world in so many ways. not just in healthcare business, but it's socially…

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Not an understatement.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): It's really, really impacting our world incredibly. And Beth did such a good job researching the article that I was among the featured people interviewed for. I was really impressed and I said, Hey, let's redo this as the podcast. So thanks again, Beth, for joining us today.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Thank you.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): So Beth, let's start by talking about one of the things I noticed about your article was that there was a lot of data there. And so one of the things we talked about in our pre call was 25% of households have at least one GLP-1 user. Have you ever seen anything like that? I mean, that's such an incredible penetration.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): I mean, you know, it sort of speaks to the fact that GLP-1s are changing not just healthcare, they're changing lifestyles, right? So, and that was kind of the crux of my report was that it's a shift from a kind of a just a patient taking a medication audience to a real consumer audience with different behaviors, health and wellness behaviors, habits and needs. And as far as the house yeah, on the households, I think that's super important.

The household is really, really interesting because now usually when you take a medication, perhaps if you are diabetic that changes some of your household, you know, there's not enough, there's not a lot of sugar in the house, that sort of thing. But I think we have proof over and over again through research and surveys that these how the households, this one quarter of households that have a GLP-1 user. And that's just a current GLP-1 user, right? That's not a past or Considering GLP-1 users.

So when you think about the past users who probably have permanently changed their habits, they've also changed the household habits. So I would I would say it's probably far more than a quarter of households. Some of the we and we talked about this in the pre-call, but some of the changes are coming or part of the reason why is that women lead the household, right? So we know that women make 80% of household, if not more, decisions. Healthcare, food, wellness, all of those sort of decisions driven by women. And GLP-1 use does skew female.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): For sure. And what's really interesting about that, in my wife's social circle, and by the way, I'm not letting any confidential information going out here, my wife, Clara, is a GLP-1 advocate and she was not in any way obese or seriously obese, but she was just really tired of being overweight and she assumed she couldn't qualify, but her doctor said that she could based upon where she was and her other sort of health issues. And so it's been a game changer for her. And it's funny seeing this happen individually, our sort of neighborhood group, a lot of the friends we have, now a number of the women are on GLP-1s, and then to my surprise, I just like you said, Beth, so often the women are leading, a lot of the men were actually admitting that they're on GLP-1 as well. And so it's come from and there's still a stigma out there, but it's come a long way, baby, really, really fast.

And that's I think part of the story today that we're talking about is just the acceleration that's happened here. This has happened the impact and speed of which I can't think of any other drug like that. Certainly not in recent years, where it's just come and become so prevalent. So, you know, as we sort of pivot to the next question here, you've covered GLP-1 extensively. You've interviewed people across pharma, healthcare, marketing technology, and consumer industries.

When you step back from all these stories, what feels different about this phenomenon?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): I mean, I think it's that change in the in the attitude and audience, right? It's not a treatment category anymore. It's become an identity category, so to speak. people don't talk about GLP-1 drugs in the same way they talk about managing their blood pressure or even diabetes, as we mentioned. They talk about it as a lifestyle transformation.

I pulled some stats. I know you don't want to talk just about stats, but some of the things from the report that 72% of users say they feel like a different person in a positive way. And on top of that, 89%. Nine out of 10 user GLP-1 users want lifestyle services that are designed specifically for them. So I think that means for marketers, for brands, they have to think more as these pharma brands, to think like a health and wellness marketer.

And then put on top of that all the health and wellness, food, retail, restaurant, all the other categories that are being being impacted by GLP-1 use.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yeah, it's funny. I'm currently and as we just talked about in Malaga, Spain. And so we see some ads here for GLP-1s, not quite to the extent that we do in other countries I've been to, but the lifestyle is obviously different everywhere you go. In the U.S. there's so much stress and so little opportunity to exercise and there's a whole bunch of confounding factors that we have to deal with. And I think what you just said there in terms of by the way, data's great, Beth. Share all the data you want. I love data.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Okay, great. Thank you. Good. I just don't want it to be a bunch of data points, right? Because it's so different.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yeah, but I think it's it helps make the bring color to this and say this isn't just us discussing it, there's actual data backing this up. And I feel like the profound change there of thinking about another thing you just said there earlier, you know, I've been in healthcare a long time and we've talked about marketing, you know, aesthetic services or lifestyle or health and wellness and all these different categories. And then the other side, the clinical side, where you're you know, some pretty serious drugs sometimes. All of these things are out there, but this one drug seems to be a combination of both. In other words, it has the impact of you know, these really important impacts in terms of diabetes, high blood pressure, other kinds of things, as well as, you know, just weight loss, which most people privately, or a lot of people at least privately admit they would like to handle as well.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): It's not just heart conditions. some of the other indications that have already been approved include sleep apnea, kidney and I think CKD, chronic kidney disease, yes. And they're looking at it for treatment for addiction. osteoarthritis, I think has been approved. Sorry, I'm a little I'm not sure like where they are all on the approval process.

I don't want to say something's approved when it's not. I know addiction hasn't been approved, but there's a lot of studies. looking at alcohol and drug addiction. and I mean, some of it is obvious, right? So your osteoarthritis, the knee that knee the knee osteoarthritis has been approved for one of the drugs. That seems to make sense by losing weight. But the addiction, this idea about food noise and cravings being calmed down, that's part of it. So it is really interesting all of the different actual health conditions beyond losing weight, beyond diabetes that GLP-1s are useful for. Or effective for,

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): And another one that I've read about and I don't know where they are in the full process is Alzheimer's and different neurological diseases. So there's so many things. Yeah.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Right. Parkinson's is another one, yeah. That's I know that's on under test. It hasn't been approved yet, but…

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): So it's pretty amazing. So another thing we talked about before, and this is kind of related, but I'd like to drill down on this a little bit, that they're not just patients, they're really a distinct consumer audience. And what do you mean by that and why does that matter?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): So beyond just being a patient. So you think about a chronic condition like heart disease or blood pressure and managing your blood pressure, those are things that you talk to your doctor about. You probably don't bring them up in conversation. Maybe it's changed your diet somewhat. Should probably change your fitness.

Maybe it has, you know, has, but we're talking food, restaurants, beverages, apparel. It it changes so many things in a person's life. So that's what I mean by it's a consumer audience versus just a patient audience. Some examples, if you've got some more statistics on food, for instance, while they're eating less, they're actually trading up. There was a new consumer study that I quoted in the report that said 56% of people are eating less, but they're trading up and buying higher quality food. Right now, GLP-1 households account for 23% of all food and beverage purchases. Purchases, but that will go up to 35% by 2030, just in a few years. So though back to that households, that's GLP-1 households. So that includes everyone in the household. And we have some evidence that it's changing the habits of the entire household as well, the eating habits. here's an interesting chocolate example. GLP-1 households are 15% or 16% of households, but they're 18% of chocolate sales. Premium chocolate sales are up 17%. For not for users, GLP-1 users, versus around 6% for non-users. So they're treating themselves.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): That's crazy.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): It makes a lot of sense. So, okay, so people are worried, like, my gosh, they're what am I gonna do as a food retailer? They're not eating as much, but that's not the only story. That's not the end game, right? They're trading up, they're different kinds of foods, they're interested in different kinds of foods. I'm sure you've seen it with a lot of the food service companies. They now have GLP-1 packaged meals that you can buy.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): It is so amazing and I think it's funny. We'll see how this goes. Going back to the idea of how pervasive this is, I've seen on just popular media the guy who's in charge of “Bar Rescue” who's going out on the record talking about how it's hurting bars. People are eating less, drinking less. But I think that we'll see that that may be true, but as you said, going premium or being more choiceful or you know, having different portion sized food. You know, for years my wife and I have split food. We'd have never buy a whole almost never buy an entree by ourselves each. We've been splitting 'cause it's so oversized, but that's what people wanted, obviously. They voted with their pocketbook. I'm curious if you have any other thoughts about those kinds of things.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yeah, I mean, I did a story about ice cream users and how or ice cream makers and how they're adjusting. So again, back to it's been shown that people want to treat themselves. People on GLP-1s may not be eating as much, but when they do eat ice cream, they want a high-quality premium product. So they're shifting to premium products. I think Ben and Jerry's is shown to be doing really well with this all this happening small.

Think about that. Small containers, high end, a little more expensive, but you're gonna go ahead and treat yourself, right? So I think that that's like you said, it's not just the absence of a market, it's not just losing these customers, it's figuring out how to cater to what they want and what they're looking for. So we go back to not just a patient, a entire consumer audience.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): So let's talk about the you mentioned identity earlier. Let's talk about stigma. Because there's, you know, well certainly I just mentioned earlier how my wife is pretty open about this. And you know, it's it ranges across the board. There's a pretty big continuum here. And thereis still this feeling like, if you're on GLP-1, you must be cheating and somehow. What does any of the data show about the stigma or what have you learned from talking to people about the reduced stigma with GLP-1? So is it moving? Is it still a big deal? Like and what do you anticipate in the future?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): I mean, I think it's still a really big deal. So there's still a lot of stigma around it. But iit's not fixed, right? So 76% of people said or of GLP-1 users said there's ongoing stigma. 71% in a in a Harris poll said that people had commented about their weight or appearance change after using GLP-1s.

So and I think the number I don't I can't remember the stat statistic right off the top of my head, I forgot to jot it down. I think 50% of people say they're hesitant to talk about their GLP-1 use. However, I would look at it with a little bit of a future lens, right? Think about mental health, menopause. Those were really taboo topics, right?

Until younger generations started talking about them, people going through women going through menopause started talking about them, celebrities started talking about it. So I think as we see those younger users and more high profile, let's say, use of GLP-1, I think that it's gonna start to change the conversation around being more normalized than just a way of of managing your weight or managing your health.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): I totally agree. And I have talked on this podcast before about we've had alcohol reduction programs. We've talked about testosterone or erectile dysfunction. There's lots of taboos out there in our world, but they continually are being beaten down. I think consumer attitudes are different and I've also shared this with my wife as well on a previous episode where her trainer said, you know, what do you want to help with?

She said menopause. And the idea of saying that years ago would have been a Possible. Nobody would have said of that in my mother's generation. No way. So I think that's really important. So when you think about the change here, then let's talk about younger consumers. They behave differently in a lot of ways, and they seem to be very comfortable with telehealth.

I'm sure you may have some data for that. More direct access channels for healthcare in general and GLP-1. Any how How is that impacting GLP-1? Is it about the inconvenience, the privacy, stigma, all of it? What are your thoughts there?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): So the telehealth story in GLP-1s is interesting because part of the reason why the GLP-1s grew on telehealth was because of the compounded. So there was a shortage when the when the GLP-1s first came out, when Novo Nordisk first came out with Wegovy, there was a shortage. And then when Eli Lilly followed with Zepbound, it also was in shortage for quite a while. So that opened up an opportunity. The FDA allows compounders to step in and make a compounded product when there's a shortage.

So that's the Rose, the I'm trying to think some of the other ones. Not Weight Watchers, Noom came in. Hims and Hers. That's that's a big one. They all started selling compounded GLP-1s direct to people on telehealth.

So they sell other products like ED drugs, some of the other drugs, things for I think Hims and Hers does like hair, hair loss kind of drugs, those sorts of things. So they added compounded GLP-1s and it just took off. So technically, they're not supposed to be they're not doing anything illegal. You're allowed to prescribe compounded GLP-1s as a personalized dose. And so that's how they're able to still do it.

They're not the drugs aren't in shortage anymore. And I think Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been fairly aggressive in saying to the to the compounders who aren't doing it the right way, like “you can't do this, this isn't correct,” and shutting them down legally. But anyway, so that's how the telehealth started. And I think that just it made it easier for people to access them. It made it more convenient.

And that telehealth access has just continued to grow, right? So Eli Lilly and Novo themselves have opened up telehealth portals in conjunction. They can't do it directly, but in conjunction with others to help people. So you can go to LilyDirect and they'll help you connect with a provider, a telehealth provider, connect with a pharmacy, and then you can. get your prescription basically to your house without without ever having to leave home.

So I think that convenience is a big part of the GLP-1 story. With younger users, there aren't as many younger GLP-1 users as there are I think the median is like 40 to 55, 60 and skews female. That doesn't mean there aren't younger and it doesn't mean there aren't older users. It just means that that's kind of where the where the center is. But younger users are using more telehealth to access GLP-1s.

But it's still, I would say, still kind of an emerging audience. But again, the I think the other part about the GLP-1s with the younger users that we haven't really talked about is social media. Older people are certainly on social media talking about it, but you know, younger people share their entire lives on social media. So if a GLP-1 is part of your story, then that's part of the life that you're sharing online too. And that's back to, you know, kind of normalizing the GLP-1 use as just part of your life.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): For sure. And I feel like the if you think about the category, the increased competition, I don't know if we have any data on this, but in a way, the competition from the compound and drugs may actually have helped the farmers, right? Because it's building the market, it's building awareness faster. And so

Right.it's ironic, but it's kinda like being in a shopping mall. There is more interest in the category as overall. So certainly it's a bigger audience than it used to be. So any ideas like because you cover more than just GLP-1. So pulling back just for a moment, any other thoughts about this in terms of how people are navigating their healthcare in terms of researching, choosing, acting before they take individual settings. I mean, I talk about this a lot, but I'm curious some of the people you speak with as well, you know, healthcare consumerism more broadly.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yeah, I mean, I think you can apply a lot of the GLP-1 habits and behaviors to healthcare users in general. We see a lot of not just the telehealth uses increasing, but people just going online for health information, healthcare information. AI chatbots, we know that I don't know, upwards of 60%, 70% of people have used a chatbot or an AI at least once or at least tried it for healthcare information. And in fact, health is one of the leading use cases for AI. People want to know, like it's not just Dr. Google anyway anymore, right? Dr. ChatGPT. I want to know what this odd symptom is, or I got a new prescription and I want to know more about it. So they'll go on to even if you just go onto Google to ask, you'll get an AI summary at the top.

So I think AI is playing playing a bigger role in healthcare as is just digital media, right? So people go on social media, they talk to influencers or they read what influencers are doing. In health, there's a lot of nurses, a lot of doctors. I just wrote a story not too long ago about nurse talk, and that there's this kind of large creator community that are nurses. The story was more about why how how nurse humor goes over better with with viewers than patient stories.

But still, I mean, again, we're back to people looking for health information in unusual places or not unusual places, in the places where they're living their lives. They're not going just to their doctor to get health information. I will say that study after study, survey after survey, our own research and others say people trust their doctor the most. So that is the person that they rely on for healthcare information. I mean like 90% of people trust their doctor to give them health information.

But, you know, among younger people, 30%, 40% trust a healthcare influencer to give them information, healthcare information.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yep, it's just changing so fast. Let's talk about the employer side of things. as you know, some employers have embraced this, some are wary about yet more cost. Where do you think that's going to go in terms of employers?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yeah, I mean, I don't know that that's it's probably gonna be a case-by-case situation, right? You see, Starbucks, I think recently said they're they're kiboshing their GLP-1 program. I saw an online poll or an online petition like “write to Starbucks and get our GLP-1 drugs recovered.” But then you have ones like Bank of America who say, we're embracing it. We they I think they said they spent $250 million last year and they're glad about it.

They think their employees are healthier, they think it's a good benefit. Now you're talking a big company with a lot of capital to be able to spend on their employees. But I think it's probably gonna be a case by case when it comes to employers. It is it is an expense. We write about that quite a bit that employers are saying this is this is our biggest healthcare expense.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yep, for sure. And you alluded to earlier how the GLP-1s are impacting the nutrition, right? The choices and choosing different foods and perhaps less foods. We haven't talked much about exercise, muscle prevent preservation, behavior change, and long-term adherence. What what have you learned from talking to people in the data that you've seen as well?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yeah, I mean, I think we know about 50% of people are still on GLP-1s a year after. We also know that costs and side effects are the biggest reasons for dropping off and we also know when it comes to fitness that strength training, fitness, that part of fitness is really important for GLP-1 users. There's another smaller trend, or not small trends, a huge trend in protein among consumers in general. Adopting or eating more protein.

But among GLP-1 users, something like 65% of GLP-1 users saying they're trying to add protein to their diet compared to around 40%, 45%, I think, of just average consumers. So it is a big trend for everyone. But GLP-1 users are adding protein because they are concerned about the muscle loss. There's a group of drugs that are under investigation, I guess, or in trials now that would preserve muscle. So either in combination with the GLP-1 or a GLP-1 drug itself that is aimed at preserving muscle, because we know that that is a problem across the board with the GLP-1 use.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): That's amazing. And it's funny because I was in a while back I read about this and wanted to investigate. Yeah, I remember the Ozempic face, Ozempic butt was something out there, and the public was misunderstanding that that was caused by Ozempic, and it's actually just rapid weight loss of any kind will cause losing losing muscle and getting too saggy on skin. So any of the data to talk when you as you mentioned they're aware of this. What is the compliance there? Do you have any idea of like how many consumers are not just taking s I mean, some are for sure just taking the drugs, but others are seriously adding protein and adding strength training. Do you have any sense of that? Or is that data we expect to see in the future?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Well the protein, I as I said, that two-thirds of GLP-1 users are adding protein or actively adding protein to their diets comparative to, you know, 45%, 50% of you average consumers.

So we know that they're trying to add protein to their diet. We also I think there I had some data in my report, which I can't call recall right off the top of head, but it was that gym memberships are up among GLP-1 users. So, and there's no the healthcare providers too, and all of this are a key part of it because they're relaying to their patients, “hey, you need to think about strength training.” And you're right, it is an effect of rapid weight loss for anyone. But I think that it no matter what, if you just lost a lot of weight using Weight Watchers or just by your diet, you would have to be careful about protein and strength training.

However, because it is extremely rapid. It is really effective, 15% to 20% of your body weight. That doesn't necessarily happen as quickly with diet and exercise. That not only healthcare provider, I mean healthcare providers are also very aware of it and passing those messages along. So I do think that we'll keep watching that, but I that's a definitely a place where there's going to be definitely more growth, I expect.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): For sure. What do you see as the impact or what have you learned about the impact of these drugs on other weight loss programs, bariatric surgery? I've got some thoughts on this as well, but I'm sure you've come across some with all the research you've done on this topic.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yeah, the bariatric surgery rates are down. I don't know exactly what, but but it's across the board. I think I saw I was doing a story about younger users and bariatric surgery is I wouldn't say zero, but it dropped significantly among younger users who are you who are looking for who are obese and looking for a weight loss or were looking for a management program. Most of them were going to GLP-1s. in I think over the last couple of years they've switched to trying GLP-1s instead of bariatric surgery, which makes a lot of sense for a younger person.

But yeah, definitely bariatric surgery has gone down. You said you have some thoughts. What do you what do you…?

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Well no, I just it's anecdotally, I've seen this. Firstof all, we work with there are now, it's interesting with bariatric surgeons from their point of view, sometimes patients are just too large or they're too obese for surgery. They can't handle it. So ironically, sometimes the GLP-1s can actually help as part of the surgical program. So it'll be really interesting to see how that'll impact it. Certainly it's less people going straight to bariatric surgery.

On the other hand, it'll help people that need that in addition to the GLP-1s being successful. And so we've seen that you know professional with clients as well as individually. Even you know, programs out there, for example, a friend of a friend has been doing the multi-level thing for weight loss for years as a supplement to her family income. And that's you know, it was almost like a cult, this particular group. And now they have also in drip brace GLP-1s because essentially it's like either get with the program or get out of the way, and it's just be left behind. And that's again just fundamental.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Those older players, that's what I mean. GLP-1s are kind of steamrolling a system that really wasn't working anyway for consumers, right? Primary care never really had a good model for treating obesity, you know, diet and exercise. So GLP-1s are not only this new effective drug, they're kind of jumping over this failed system of weight loss infrastructure, right? Weight Watchers is on board, Noom, they're all using GLP-1s or adopting GLP-1s as part of their business plan.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yeah, and they they're already had the infrastructure set up, right? So they're riding the rails of that. And going back to what you said a moment ago, I spoke at Primed at a big conference for primary care doctors. And the audience in this one was a big one. It was about four or five hundred doctors. And I spoke the topic was about elective care. And one of the things I proposed was talking about weight loss because it's such a big deal.

And Beth, it's funny, at the end of that talk I was stormed at the end of the podium, or like probably 30 or 40 doctors wanted to talk “how do I learn more about doing this?” But the problem was there were sort of business in a box programs out there that you could try to build this into your business and it didn't reimburse directly in many cases. And so you could build for this, but not for that. And you know, you still at the end of the day, people want a magic pill. They wanted an easier access. And it just was confounding. It never seemed to get there. And all of a sudden GLP-1s just exploded. speaking of magic pills.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yeah, and I didn't mean to slander primary care doctors, by the way. I just meant that that that system wasn't working for people. And now I think that primary care

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): No, it's like hey, by any objective measure

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): is saying, like, hey, we can we can help you with this. We can do this too, right? Like you said, that interest.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yeah, for sure. And yeah, I think it's by an objective measure, it's just we're not blaming anybody here. It's just it didn't work. But if you look at the success rates are not high. And as I mentioned earlier, my wife, you know, got on her GLP-1s from her primary care doctor. And so you know, that that worked out well. speaking of magic pills, let's talk about the impact of pills coming up in the future here. They're already here, but like how do you see that's gonna happen compared to injections?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yeah, I mean, I know people talk a lot about like injection fear, but I think we've seen that people get over that pretty quickly. Like you're motivated to lose weight or take care of your health. and so it became that I think that became a little bit of a I wouldn't say non-issue. It's probably more the new consumers, right? People who are interested in GLP-1 but they're afraid of the needles.

Well, now they have a pill option. Before you didn't have a pill option, you had to just try the needle and see if it worked for you. So now there's a pill option. So I think that that's gonna bring in, I mean Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly both say that like 80% of their pill users are new to GLP-1s. I don't know if that'll be able to sustain that high level. Maybe, but I do think that it's a great option for people who are either afraid of needles, looking for convenience.

You don't have to keep I think most of the GLP-1 drugs have to be refrigerated. The injectables have to be refrigerated. Pills don't have to be refrigerated. You could take one. You know, if you're having side effects, you could skip a day. I mean, I'm not recommending that I'm not a doctor, but I'm just saying I think people the pills are very attractive. And so not just the two that are on the market now, but there are more in the pipeline coming. I mean, I think there's Stat the Boston Globe health website, Stat, do you know them? I'm sure they're a huge healthcare communications or platform.

Anyway, I think they they do a GLP-1 tracker, drug tracker. I think they have like I say 70, 80, something like that in the pipeline. New GLP-1 drugs that are in trials right now that are not on market. I know it's crazy. A lot. There's a lot of interest because there's a lot of money

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Wow, that's just crazy.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): We're talking about $100 billion, $150 billion. I mean, I the number changes so often if you depending on the financial company that you're they're listening to. I think Goldman Sachs puts them at like $100 or $120 million by 2030. Billion, sorry, billion dollar industry.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Wow. Yeah, brilliant.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yeah.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yeah, it's amazing.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): I mean cancer is a larger industry. I think that's around $200, $250 billion. Certainly no one wants to have that. But as far as in in up and coming and growing and the kind of category that we're talking about, right? It's not it's certainly not a lifestyle, it is a health category, but it has those lifestyle elements to it.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): So as we wrap up here, looking ahead three to five years, and by the way, Beth, it's so insightful and I love your data. So thank you for sharing so much. but where do you think the yeah, where do you think the wind is going to blow? What is your predictions over the next three to five years?

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): So I think there's gonna be more competitors, definitely by next year, 2027, 2028, more competitors, more competitors come on market. It's not only more choices for patients, but it's gonna lower the cost. And I think that's gonna be a big thing. Medicare has recently added GLP-1 access, but it's temporary. So I'm interested to see what's gonna happen there.

I think Dr. Oz the other day said 600,000 Medicare patients have started a GLP-1 since the program started in July. That's a lot. So open more access, more users, more health benefits, more of those, the trials that we talked about earlier. Will it become a treatment for addiction?

And then those long-term health effects. I was really interested by the Bank of America saying “we're investing in this because we're investing in the health of our employees and we're pleased with the results.” I think that that's going to become more of the through line, right? Health, weight loss for sure, but health and that improvement and how that's benefiting the healthcare system in general, right? Fewer people going to the doctor, fewer people having obesity complications or diabetic complications.

I think it's just going to become obviously much more normalized. We've already talked about that, the stigma going away, but as a an overall health treatment, it'll be really interesting to see.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): I'm gonna ask you a bonus question. have you seen anything have you seen anything about reduced healthcare cost overall? In other words, it's kinda like value based care in a way, meaning that okay, if we're taking we've got the cost of the drugs, especially to get cheaper, that means, you know, looking down the path, we won't have as much diabetes, we won't have as much heart disease. I'm curious what you've seen about that.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): I mean, I've seen a couple of evaluations like that. Some that say there isn't an there's a benefit to it. There was a cost analysis, I can't remember what it a couple it was maybe a year ago, two years ago, that said the cost of the drug was worth it in the health outcomes. But then I've also seen some that say it's a break even, it takes a couple of years. That's some of the employer hesitancy, right?

If it takes a few years, is your employee still going to be here in a few years that you would get that benefit as an employer? That their health is better and so and you helped get them there or they quit and go somewhere else. You paid for it and they're healthier somewhere else.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yeah, that and that's real. It's also real when you think, you know, as a small business, our agency has to change our insurance every couple of years. the rates just are insane. We don't want to. Nobody wants to, but the rates, you know, they go up 40% a year. It's crazy. And so if you think about that, that builds an incentive at a perverse, you know, disincentive to think of long term care. If your plan is seeing turnover that quickly, you'll never see the benefits. Some other plan will see the benefit in the future.

So from the insurance side, it'll be interesting with Medicare, 'cause Medicare is not going to see the same thing, right? At least not pure Medicare. So there is an incentive. So we'll see. We'll see.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Yes, I know. It's definitely gonna be a great and interesting industry to watch and see develop.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Yeah, very good. Beth, this was terrific. I knew it would be fun and it would thank you for inviting me the first time and thank you for letting me invite you on this. We'll put a link to the this is a premium subscription, but we'll put a link to it. You can get this particular report along with a whole lot more from eMarketer. So I appreciate your time today. It was great.

Beth Bulik (eMarketer): Thank you, Stewart. It's great talking to you. Great conversation, as always. Thanks.

Stewart Gandolf (Healthcare Success): Thank you.